Patrick Mahomes Simply Doesn’t Have Unhealthy Video games

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Patrick Mahomes performed the very best recreation of his younger profession Monday night time in opposition to the Baltimore Ravens. The Kansas Metropolis quarterback handed for 385 yards and four touchdowns with no interceptions whereas dashing for a fifth TD, and he did it in opposition to a Baltimore crew that boasted the very best protection in soccer by means of two weeks of play. Mahomes’s Total Quarterback Rating (QBR) — ESPN’s signature metric that accounts for a quarterback’s worth each passing and working the ball — was 97.7, tied for his profession excessive.

It’s no small factor to be on the receiving finish of Mahomes’s greatest recreation. By halftime in opposition to Baltimore, he had grow to be the fastest player to reach 10,000 regular-season passing yards in NFL historical past, two video games faster than Corridor of Fame QB Kurt Warner. Mahomes additionally prolonged his profession report in opposition to Lamar Jackson and the Ravens to 3-0. But of all of the superlatives that describe Mahomes’s already superb profession — the 2018 league MVP, the youngest QB to win Super Bowl MVP, the highest-paid player in the NFL with a contract value nearly half a billion {dollars} — maybe probably the most unbelievable is that this: Mahomes has by no means had a below-average recreation since coming into the NFL.

Mahomes’s “worst” recreation — when you can name it that — got here final season at house against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 5. He posted a QBR of 52.6 within the recreation however nonetheless handed for 321 yards and a landing with no interceptions within the 19-13 loss.

One other crew that has given Mahomes “bother” is division rival Los Angeles. In five games against the Chargers, Mahomes has only one recreation of over 300 yards passing. And in two of the 5 video games in opposition to L.A., he threw for lower than 200 yards, incomes Whole QBR scores of 62.5 and 61.7. Nonetheless, containing Mahomes hasn’t translated into wins for the Chargers. Regardless of holding him to merely barely above-average performances — no small feat! — the Chargers are simply 1-4 in opposition to the Chiefs with Mahomes behind heart.

The one crew to persistently give Mahomes some measure of bother — and in addition win — are the New England Patriots, the crew the Chiefs will be playing this Sunday. In three games in opposition to head coach Invoice Belichick and the Patriots’ protection, Mahomes and the Chiefs have received simply as soon as. Mahomes’s common QBR in opposition to the Patriots is 68.8, his second-worst ranking amongst groups he’s confronted greater than as soon as.

New England has been notably adept at taking away Mahomes’s favourite receivers, which shouldn’t shock anybody accustomed to a Belichick game plan. Within the three conferences between the 2 groups, Mahomes has a completion share properly under what we’d anticipate from a median NFL QB in related conditions.

But regardless of New England’s earlier success, our Elo model offers the Patriots solely a 26 % likelihood to beat the Chiefs on Sunday. With a brief week to plan for New England, maybe the chances of Mahomes having a less-than-incredible efficiency in opposition to the Patriots are first rate, even when it doesn’t result in a win.

When going through a participant like Mahomes, who’s by no means had a very dangerous recreation in his skilled profession, possibly that’s the very best you may hope for.

Take a look at our newest NFL predictions.





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